World market for industrial robots surges

The world market for industrial robots surged by 25 per cent in 2000 over the previous year, according to the annual survey from the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

The world market for industrial robots surged by 25 per cent in 2000 over the previous year, according to the annual survey, World Robotics 2001, published on 31st October 2001 by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) in cooperation with the International Federation of Robotics (IFR).

Growth was mainly a result of skyrocketing sales in Japan, the Republic of Korea and the European Union.

After two years of falling or stagnant sales, there was a sharp recovery in Japan in 2000.

Sales of all types of industrial robots (both multipurpose and those dedicated to specific applications) increased by 32 per cent, reaching almost 47,000 units.

After plummeting sales of robots in the Republic of Korea during the Asian crises in 1997 and 1998, sales enjoyed robust recoveries in 1999 and 2000 of +70 per cent and +95 per cent respectively.

In the European Union, sales of multipurpose industrial robots rose by 20 per cent in 2000 to just under 30,000 units.

The highest growth was recorded in Sweden with 56 per cent over the 1999 level, followed by Spain with 39 per cent.

"Europe and the United States are rapidly catching up with Japan," said Mike Wilson of Meta Vision Systems, Chairman of the International Federation of Robotics.

"In the early 1990s, installations of multipurpose industrial robots in the EU and the USA only amounted to about 20 per cent and 7 per cent respectively of Japan's installations of all types of industrial robots.

By 1999, those shares had risen to 69 per cent and 36 per cent.

"In 2000, however, the corresponding shares dropped slightly to 63 per cent and 28 per cent respectively, but only as a result of booming sales in Japan." Looking at the UNECE/IFR quarterly survey on order intake of industrial robots for the first half of 2001, worldwide the figure decreased by 7 per cent compared with the same period in 1999.

However this figure hides some major differences between regions.

While Europe still has an expanding robot market (11 per cent), it is contracting in North America (-28 per cent), mainly because of falling demand from the electronics and telecoms industries.

In Asia the market is also falling; -10 per cent in the first half of 2001.

In the rest of the world the robot market was almost flat at +2 per cent.

Total accumulated yearly sales, since industrial robots started to be introduced into industry at the end of the 1960s, amounted at the end of 2000 to some 1,200,000 units.

Many of the early robots, however, have been taken out of service.

UNECE and IFR estimate the total worldwide operational stock at the end of 2000 at between a minimum of 750,000 units (based on 12 years average service life) and a possible maximum of 975,000 units (based on a service life of 15 years).

The world market for industrial robots is projected to increase from almost 99,000 units in 2000 to about 128,000 in 2004 - a yearly average of 7 per cent.

Excluding Japan, worldwide sales of multipurpose industrial robots are forecast to increase from 52,000 units to 71,000 units by 2004, a yearly average of 8 per cent.

Growth in robot investment in Japan will be spurred by an increasing demand for replacement investment.

Between 2000 and 2004, sales are projected to rise from 47,000 units to about 57,000 units.

In the United States, the operational stock of multipurpose industrial robots is forecast to reach 116,000 units in 2004.

The projection for the European Union is 306,000 units, of which 141,000 in Germany; 61,000 in Italy; 31,000 in France; and 18,000 in the United Kingdom.

Continued Mike Wilson, "Growth in robot investment is being spurred by plummeting robot prices.

Between 1990 and 2000, the price of an average industrial robot fell dramatically while at the same time the variety on offer and their performance, in terms of both mechanical and electronic characteristics, have continuously improved.

"Comparing like with like and adjusting for inflation, a robot sold in 2000 cost less than a fifth of what an equivalent robot with the same performance would have been in 1990 - if you could buy it." Profitability studies have shown that it is not unusual for robots to have a pay-back period as short as 1 to 2 years.

In Germany, the price of robots relative to labour costs have fallen from a baseline of 100 in 1990 to 35 in 2000 and to less than 20 when taking into account the radically improved performance of robots.

In North America, the relative price has dropped to 26 and to as low as 12 if quality improvements are taken into consideration.

Robot density, ie the number of robots per 10,000 persons employed in manufacturing industry, varies considerably around the world.

In 2000, Japan had a density of 293 although this figure is skewed by the inclusion of all robots.

Singapore and the Republic of Korea had robot densities of 157 and 115, but both have a much higher proportion of robots with less than five CNC axes, so these figures also cannot be directly compared with those of other countries.

The European group was topped by Germany, which had a density of 120, followed by Italy with 95 and Sweden with 78.

Elsewhere the density varied between 62 in Finland and 18 in Norway, with the density in the UK coming in at 31.

The corresponding figure in the USA was 49.

If one looks at densities specifically in the automotive industry, results are vastly higher.

The UK records a figure of 426 - nearly 14 times greater than the corresponding figure for all industry.

In Germany and Italy the figures are 819 and 844 respectively, or almost one robot for every 10 workers.

Apart from domestic robots (so far mainly for lawn mowing) and entertainment robots (including toy and hobby machines), almost all service robots installed up to 2000 and inclusive were for professional use.

Major application areas are underwater, medical, demolition, mobile platforms for multiple use, laboratory, agriculture (mainly milking) and cleaning.

A huge increase in lawn-mowing robots sales of more than ten times is forecast for the period 2001-2004.

The projection of 40,000 units might very well be far too low.

The market for entertainment robots is forecast at some 200,000 units, which also might be far too low.

"Falling robot prices, increasing labour costs and continuously improving technology are major driving forces which have been the impetus behind continued massive robot investment in industry", concluded Mike Wilson.

"Even in developing countries like Brazil, Mexico and China, robot sales are starting to take off at an impressive rate.".

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