Chinese steel prices begin to recover
A
MEPS (International) product story
Edited by the Engineeringtalk editorial team
Aug 18, 2004
Chinese prices for strip and long products are beginning to recover, reports MEPS (International) in its "Asian average carbon steel price forecast" for July 2004.
Chinese prices for strip and long products are beginning to recover, reports MEPS (International) in its "Asian average carbon steel price forecast" for July 2004.
However, financing restrictions are putting a damper on the amount of business transacted.
Demand in Japan is good for flat products and steady for the long items.
South Korean sales of strip and plate are quite strong but demand for long products is weakening.
The Taiwanese sheet market is quiet and the bar market is under negative pressure.
Strengthening of the Japanese and South Korean currencies has pushed up average Asian prices by 0.7% this month when measured in US dollars.
MEPS' forecasts for hot and cold rolled coil prices remain virtually unchanged.
The short term situation has performed broadly in line with our expectations.
MEPS has marginally downgraded its forecasts for plate.
Prices of ordinary steel plate in the Chinese market continues to be weak.
MEPS can see strong demand for the higher specifications but plenty of availability for commercial types.
The average price recovery for this product may be more muted than originally calculated.
MEPS' forecasts for coated products are slightly reduced due to weaker than expected demand in China.
MEPS continues with the belief that in this sector there are prospects for further modest price improvements over into the final quarter of this year.
However, most of the supply shortfalls will probably have been covered by the end of 2004.
A price slippage in 2005 is expected.
The expected small upturn in prices of wire rod and structural sections did not materialise in July due, mainly, to poor market conditions in China.
These could extend into the medium term.
Consequently, MEPS has down-rated its forecasts for these two products.
The situation for reinforcing bars and merchant bars is much more encouraging for the steel producers.
The substantial price decreases over the past two months were reversed in July.
As a result, MEPS has made slight upward adjustments to its previous figures.
MEPS still foresees a slight price deterioration in the region after the turn of the year.
The potential for oversupply is real, particularly with the prospects of a slowdown in the rate of growth of Chinese consumption from the construction segment.
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