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Engineering Industry Reports and Surveys
News Release from: MEPS (International)
Edited by the Engineeringtalk Editorial
Team on 27 October 2005
China dominates global steel figures
MEPS (International) expects crude steel output in 2005 to be just below 1116 million tonnes - 6.2% up on the year earlier figure.
MEPS (International) expects crude steel output in 2005 to be just below 1116 million tonnes - 6.2% up on the year earlier figure Blastfurnace iron production is forecast to expand by almost 8% and direct reduced iron supply by 2.7%, year on year
The steel manufacturers of most industrialised countries and the emerging nations have acted very responsibly in reducing output to balance market demand, during the second and third quarters of the year.
This is expected to extend into the final trimester.
MEPS' forecasts from the previous issue of World Steel Outlook have been trimmed.
China still leads the way; with an anticipated increase of 77 million tonnes.
This will be more than the 65.5 million tonne rise MEPS attributes to the total world output.
Producers in the EU and USA are expected to reduce supply by above 16 million tonnes in 2005.
Chinese steel consumption has been growing rapidly for most of this year.
However, steel output has been moving up at a faster rate - transforming the country from a net importing nation into a net exporter of steel.
India will also increase output this year by around 16.5% - not all of which will be consumed in their home markets.
Crude steel production is forecast at 162 million tonnes in the EU-15 in 2005.
This represents a decrease of almost 6.3 million tonnes on the year earlier figure (3.8%).
The decline for the steel manufacturers of the new entrant member states will be even more dramatic - falling from 25.14 million tonnes in 2004 to 21.17 million tonnes this year (15.8%).
Steel making in non-EU European nations is expected to reach almost 32 million tonnes in 2005.
Bulgarian output will be lower this year as the main flat products producer reduces output due to weak demand.
Turkish production is forecast to rise by approximately 0.5 million tonnes in 2005 compared with the previous year.
This performance will help the regional output to expand marginally this year.
In the former USSR, MEPS predicts output declining by 1.4 million tonnes (more than 1%) in 2005, year on year, in this region.
Part of this reduction will be due to a fall in exports of semi finished products.
Blastfurnace iron output is forecast to drop at a faster pace because of the reduced export sales.
North American demand has been slipping.
Import volumes have increased.
However, the worst appears to be over in the short term.
Nevertheless, MEPS forecasts steel output in the region falling by 6% in 2005 compared with the year earlier figure.
Steel output in South America in 2005 is forecast to be slightly down on the previous year's outturn.
A mixed picture has developed with Brazilian steel making, uncharacteristically, lower but with increases likely in most other significant producing nations.
Total African steel making is expected to be substantially up this year.
Domestic demand from the North of the continent is good.
In contrast, consumption in subSaharan Africa is not so exciting.
MEPS forecasts total African steel production rising from 16.65 million tonnes in 2004 to 18 million tonnes in 2005.
In the Middle East, MEPS continues to forecast strong growth in steel production in this region in 2005.
More than 6% is predicted compared with the 2004 figure.
Total Asian steel production is expected to reach almost 577 million tonnes this year.
This represents an increase of near 81.5 million tonnes (16.5%) on the 2004 figure and equates to in excess of 50% of global output for the first time.
Asian blastfurnace iron production will represent more than 60% of the world's total.
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