Global steel manufacturing marches on

A MEPS (International) product story
Edited by the Engineeringtalk editorial team Nov 13, 2006

MEPS forecasts global crude steel manufacturing this year at 1237 million tonnes.

World steel output continues to grow at an astonishing rate.

The year-on-year percentage increase in 2006 is expected to top the gain made in 2004 and will be the largest for more than three decades.

MEPS (International) now forecasts global crude steel manufacturing this year at 1237 million tonnes.

Blast-furnace iron production is expected to reach 873 million tonnes - a double digit expansion on the year earlier figure.

In the seven years since the end of the last century, iron and steel production will have expanded by around 446 million tonnes - a rise of 57%.

This equates to an average annual growth rate of 6.6%.

MEPS predicts further solid increases over the next few years.

Demand has been strong across the globe.

Mill order books are full in most regions.

However, this situation could change in some parts of the world in 2007 as an inventory drawdown commences in many industrialised nations.

Asia remains the key region for growth in the steel sector - rising from 39% of the total output at the end of the last decade to over 53% this year and forecast to rise to 58% in 2010.

Steel output in the EU-25 is now expected to reach almost 199 million tonnes this year.

Blast-furnace iron production should top 111 million tonnes.

These figures show increases over 2005 of 12.3 million and 4.8 million tonnes, respectively.

The modest rise in pig iron output was brought about by blast-furnace relines in Spain and a fire in Germany.

Furthermore, strong construction demand has helped lift the volume of steelmaking at the mini mills.

Steel manufacturing in the EU-15 is forecast to expand by 9 million tonnes in 2006 compared with the year earlier figure.

The projected rise in VAT in January next year stimulated demand for steel in the northern part of the region as consumers and building developers rushed to beat the increase.

MEPS believes that, in the coming year, real demand for steel will be lower and customers will start to reduce their inventories to match real consumption.

Crude steel output in Western Europe (excluding the EU) is now forecast to reach almost 36 million tonnes in 2006.

This equates to a 3.6 million tonne (11%) rise compared with last year.

The Turkish steel sector leads the way as it satisfies both home and export demand.

However, substantial gains will be made in Serbia and Montenegro from the opening of capacity.

Massive steel output increases have been recorded in most steelmaking countries in the CIS this year.

MEPS predicts regional steel production reaching just above 120 million tonnes - up 7.1% on the outturn in 2005.

Virtually all the gain will take place in blast-furnace/oxygen steelmaking.

This will, however, change a little in the near future.

North American steel production is now forecast to reach almost 134 million tonnes in 2006.

This compares with approximately 127 million tonnes in the previous 12 months.

Domestic demand will rise by near to 20 million tonnes.

Substantial import volumes have entered the region.

Steel output in South America at 45.7 million tonnes in 2006 is likely to top the outturn last year, despite the substantial loss of output from a Brazilian blast-furnace breakdown in the first half.

Strong demand has kept steel making in other countries quite firm.

Total African steel production will decline by approximately 0.9 million tonnes in 2006.

This is the only region for which MEPS are forecasting a reduced output this year.

Domestic demand is fair.

Crude steel making in 2006 in the Middle East is now expected to be just above last years outturn.

Demand continues to be firm in many parts of the region but production difficulties have limited growth.

Asian steel making this year should be above 660 million tonnes - approximately 13% above the figure recorded in 2005.

Blast-furnace iron production is forecast to reach more than 551 million tonnes - up by 74 million tonnes on the year earlier outturn.

The majority of the increase will come from countries using the blast-furnace/oxygen steelmaking process - notably China.

Steel output should expand in Oceania due to higher output in Australia.

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