Manufacturing confidence positive but on the wane
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Manufacturing Technologies Association product story
Edited by the Engineeringtalk editorial team
Dec 2, 2004
The Manufacturing Technologies Association (MTA) Trends Survey for the 3rd quarter of 2004 saw a reduction in the level of confidence, although the percentage balance remains positive.
The Manufacturing Technologies Association (MTA) Trends Survey for the 3rd quarter of 2004 saw a reduction in the level of confidence, although the percentage balance remains positive.
This was consistent with the MTA's latest forecasts for the industry.
After a good start to the year, especially in the 2nd quarter, the summer period saw a pause in activity as higher interest rates and unfavourable exchange rates made their mark on confidence across the UK manufacturing sector.
This was also reflected in various national statistics for the 3rd quarter of the year, such as slower growth for the economy overall and a quarter-on-quarter reduction in manufacturing investment.
Many factors point however to this being a pause in an otherwise upward trend, rather than a turning point in activity.
The respondents to the MTA Trends Survey were optimistic of a pick up in orders and the basic economic fundamentals for investment remain in place with company profits and financial balances healthier than for a number of years.
The highlights of the new MTA forecast were as follows.
Demand for machine tools in the UK in 2004 are expected to be +19% higher than in 2003, with further growth of +17% in 2005.
This growth comes from an exceptionally low level of business in 2003 so that, despite these apparently large increases, the market in 2005 is still lower than the most recent peak in demand, which was seen in 2000.
Exports of machine tools are expected to increase, year-on-year, by +4% in 2004 and then by +10% in 2005; overseas demand next year will be led by the EU markets and to some extent by the USA, although there are downside risks associated with both of these forecasts.
The percentage balance for business confidence in the 3rd quarter was +20%; although this is a decline from the +42% in the 2nd quarter of the year, it is above the levels seen during most of 2003 and is still significantly positive.
Order intake was the same as in the 2nd quarter of the year, with an increase of +3% predicted for the final period of the year.
A significant minority of respondents in the machinery manufacturers and equipment sections reported problems with raw materials, and supply and delivery were an issue for a similar number of the machinery importers.
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