Consultancy expects diesel to match gasoline sales

Consumer demands for better fuel economy coupled with pressure to reduce CO2 emissions is likely to result in diesel sales accounting for half of all passenger cars sold in Europe, says a report

Consumer demands for better fuel economy coupled with pressure on carmakers to reduce CO2 emissions is likely to result in diesel sales eventually accounting for half of all passenger cars sold in Europe, according to independent automotive technology provider Ricardo Consulting Engineers.

In terms of overall market size, four of the top six markets - France, Germany, Italy and the Benelux countries - continued to experience rapid growth last year achieving record levels of diesel sales.

Spain already exceeds 50 per cent diesel penetration.

Even the UK, the only European country to buck this trend over the past six years, showed signs of reversing its steady decline.

These are the findings of Ricardo's latest annual diesel report, which concludes that a further increase from the present level of almost one in three sales (up from 14 to 32 per cent penetration over the past 10 years) is likely before the end of the decade.

The independent consultancy, which has pioneered much of the development work in advanced gasoline and diesel engines and monitors market trends on behalf of its many clients, says that improvements in diesel engine performance and driving characteristics are helping to drive the rapid growth of diesel engine sales in Europe.

"The car buyer's choice today is fundamentally an economic one," says the report's author, Martin Love.

"Although the near 30 per cent fuel economy and CO2 advantage between diesel and gasoline engines has always existed, the enormous improvements in diesel engine performance and refinement have tipped the balance in recent years and are steering large numbers of the buying public towards the diesel option.

Diesel pump prices, which across Europe are on average 16 per cent cheaper than gasoline, merely heighten the financial advantage." Commenting on the voluntary agreements between carmakers and EU environment ministers to reduce average CO2 emissions for new vehicles to 140g/km by 2008, Mr Love said: "To help meet these targets vehicle manufacturers have increased the attractiveness of the diesel option, further driving diesel sales and penetration." "Last year we said it would not be surprising to see 40 per cent share over the next 5 to 10 years," added Mr Love.

"In view of the recent upward surge and with some major markets already exceeding this level we now see the possibility of diesel taking 50 per cent of sales by the end of the decade." Diesel share of European sales reaches new record Overall, diesel penetration across Europe in 2000 increased by 11 per cent from the previous year's record to 4.76 million vehicles, representing a market share of 32.3 per cent.

For the first time, both France and Germany exceeded one million sales.

Sales of car-derived vans and light commercial vehicles up to 3.5-tonne gross vehicle weight are already heavily biased towards diesel and in 1999 reached a new record level of 1.51 million units representing a penetration of approximately 90 per cent.

France remains the largest market for diesel cars.

In 2000, sales increased by 10.5 per cent to 1.046 million vehicles taking diesel penetration to 49 per cent.

Germany was the second largest market for diesel cars in 2000.

Sales increased by 20 per cent in line with the overall market to 1.03 million vehicles maintaining a diesel share of 30.4 per cent.

Germany is Europe's largest passenger car market.

Continued rapid growth helped Italy re-take third place ahead of Spain.

Diesel sales were up by 19 per cent to 814,000 vehicles and market penetration increased to 33.7 per cent.

After nine years of significant growth in diesel sales, the Spanish market showed signs of stabilising at 733,000 with market penetration of 53.1 per cent.

Total diesel sales in the Benelux countries increased to 445,000 with a market penetration of 38.6 per cent.

Belgium accounts for the majority of diesel sales and at 56.7 per cent has the second highest diesel penetration in Europe.

Following six years of decline in the UK, 2000 saw the first signs of a reversal in this trend with sales increasing by 3 per cent to 313,000 vehicles and market penetration increasing slightly to 14 per cent.

Although the UK remains the only major car market where diesel fuel is more expensive than gasoline, consumer demand for better fuel economy indicates that there is potential for an increase in the UK from this level.

Diesel penetration of the UK car market has previously been higher and peaked at 22.6 per cent in 1994.

The largest diesel penetration last year was 61.8 per cent, a new record for any European country, which occurred in Austria.

The Austrian market size, in 2000, was 191,000, a 6.1 per cent increase on the previous year's figure.

Advanced technology is enhancing the desirability of the diesel engine Throughout Europe, technical developments have been dominated by the comprehensive move towards direct fuel injection in the design of all new engines.

In addition, most manufacturers are increasingly using common rail fuel injection technology in preference to rotary or unit injector systems, principally because of the control flexibility and design simplicity that it offers.

Amongst the major players, the notable exception to this trend is the Volkswagen Audi Group (VAG), which is committed to using electronic unit injectors.

EUI technology provides relatively high injection pressures, is flexible and is suited to high engine power output.

The principal drawback of EUI is the development cost for new engines.

VAG is able to justify its investment in EUI technology due to its high production volumes and modular approach to engine ranges.

The company is the top producer and seller of diesel passenger cars in Western Europe and accounts for more than one in four (27.4 per cent) sales.

Recent years have seen ever-increasing levels of power and torque output from new diesel engines, which are now available with maximum outputs reaching up to 240bhp (180kW).

It is expected that within five years manufacturers will be able to offer customers the same number of diesel options as gasoline variants for each vehicle, further enhancing the desirability of the diesel car.

Future developments will include a trend towards smaller displacement higher power output diesel engines, which will ultimately use electrical power to boost vehicle acceleration.

The development of new technology such as the Flywheel Mounted Electric Device (FMED), which will improve engine starting and power generation, will assist in meeting new fuel economy and emission targets.

Of the five main tailpipe emissions, future legislation could potentially create a level playing field with diesel and gasoline engines converging towards common standards.

Inherently, diesel engines have lower carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbon (HC) emissions.

Meanwhile, pressure for lower particulate and NOx emissions will see the introduction of a new generation of filters and oxidation catalysts, in some cases combined, which will start to appear by 2004 prior to the implementation of the next level of European regulations.

Ricardo's report reviews sales and production data, analysing trends by vehicle type and by manufacturer and for individual major markets as well as for Western Europe as a whole.

It forecasts future marketing and technical trends.

The electronic report, which costs £275 for a single user licence, can be obtained from the Ricardo technical library at Shoreham in the UK.

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